Your 2016 Giants: They're Down, They're Really Down

(oops, had wrote this on 4/21, intending for it to publish late that night, but for some reason still had it open and unpublished until now).

The Giants just lost their fifth straight game, and 8 of the last 9 games, sinking to 7-10.  Giants fans are moaning everywhere.

ogc thoughts
The issue seems so very simple once I followed my instincts on what could be wrong and looked at the stats:

Buster Posey to 4/10:

• .391/.444/.696/1.140
• .333 BABIP
• 0.519 WPA
• 4.80 RE24 (111 run seasonal pace, roughly 11-12 wins)
• 7 games, 6 starts
• Giants are 5-2

Buster Posey after Utley foul ball on 4/10:

• .143/.226/.143/.369
• .174 BABIP
• -0.215 WPA
• -3.29 RE24 
• 7 games/starts
• Giants are 2-8 with Posey batting third

The losing streak began on 4/13, starting with the second game that Posey missed.  

Light at end of tunnel?  

• After 0-for-12 in 3 starts, he had a short 3 game hitting streak, hitting .333/.429/.333/.762, before an 0-for-4 again.  
• Last five games:  3 walks and 3 K's in 20 AB (85% contact rate and 1.00 K/BB ratio, which are considered good).

All very SSS, so nothing is a statistically significant trend.  But still, clearly, there is a before and after.  

Pitching Has Been Up and Down, but Mostly Up

The pitching has actually been on the borderline good side per PQS, but not great, where we have had 7 DOM starts out of 17 games (41% DOM) and 4 DIS (24% DIS, which is OK, but should be better).  The problem has been our 1-6 record in MID starts, where we should be somewhere in the middle, 3-4, roughly.  Change to that and we are 9-8, which is where the D-backs are right now (since the Giants lost two MID starts to them, it is possible that the two MID changed could involve at least one of the D-back's games).  

I'm not worried yet, though obviously this is not great.  We are not that far back, and Bumgarner hasn't been himself in two of his first three starts.  Once we get BumCuetoSam all going good at the same time, things will be a lot better, I believe. 

Between Peavy and Cain, Cain is the most worrisome and yet not that far away.  He had that great first start.  He seems to be having a dead arm period, perhaps due to his abbreviated spring training.  He dominates for 3-4 innings now and then everything explodes by the 5th inning.  We might see Broadway shipped back to AAA at some point, to bring up Heston for one Cain start, then swap Broadway out for another reliever on the 40-man (Black?  Gregorio?).  Cain might just need one skipped start to rest and maybe work on something.

Peavy I was expecting more out of, but he seems to be down like Cain too.    But he's more like a high wire act, you expect him to fall at some point.  Sometimes he is bad like this, but he's actually been mostly a great pitcher for us, so it seems reasonable that this will be temporary, that he would be good for us again.

Except for the playoffs, where he has come up small, like he has all through his career.   I was not overjoyed when he was resigned, hoping they would get someone better.  But I didn't think he would hurt our chances greatly in the playoffs either, he would be tolerable as our 4th starter, if he was that, or, as I was hoping, moved into long relief if he was the worse starter. 

But generally he has been great at helping us during the season, when healthy, so that helped me tolerate him.  The amazing thing is that while he's not that dominant a pitcher, he does just well enough in all facets of pitching that he was great for us last season, even including the two starts when he should have been DLed for his back:  61% DOM, 11% DIS.  He did not have one DIS start after healing up and returning, putting up a 68% DOM, 0% DIS, which is elite pitching.  He has been dominant just enough, and on a very consistent basis, allowing him to compile a lot of DOM starts while avoiding DIS starts for the most part.

He just seems to do it with mirrors.  And that creates the seed of doubt that sit sin my stomach wondering if he will snap out of this and start pitching well again, or if he's finally entering the final decline phase of his career.  

But his FIP before today's game is at 3.89, and he has a great K/BB ratio, so this just appears to just be a phase.  His BABIP is huge and he has given up more homers than 1.0 HR/9, but that falls within reasonable random range given it's been only 3 starts.  Hopefully today's start is the start of the Good Peavy streaks that he seems to go on since he's been with the Giants, he ended 2014 and 2015 with very long streaks of pitching dominance, and if he can do that while our top 3 of Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija keeps doing well, we will forget about this unfortunately blip of a losing streak when all is said and done.

Bochy on my Mind: His Spectrum of Management

A recent comment about Bochy on Raising Cain got me thinking.  He was compared to Dusty Baker.  And I've added on, as usual.
ogc thoughts

First off, I loved Dusty Baker while he was manager of the Giants.  He was an excellent player manager, getting a lot out of his players.  The team won under him (and having Bonds and Kent helped greatly).  He also led the charge from the old era to the new Magowan era, so there was a lot to like about him.

However, I was done with him after the 2002 World Series.  How do I count the ways?  First and foremost, I would have started Reuter in Game 7 over Livan.  Yes, he did win key games for us along the way, but you want a bulldog going for you in that game, not a marshmellow like Livan.  I was not surprised by the results.  Secondly, searching around for a DH was bad enough - he should have just used Shinjo in that spot, he had the most regular play, and when he was used properly - in the bottom half of the order - he was actually valuable there.  Instead, he started Feliz in Game 7, a rookie he barely used all season, and just threw him to the wolves in the most important game of the year.

Thirdly, given that Nen's shoulder was weaker than a wet tissue paper AND Ortiz was pitching well enough up to that point, he could have left in his veteran to get out of the inning, perhaps get a ground ball (he was 50/50 in that game up to then) double play.  As a fan, it was enough to know that I would have left Ortiz in to try to get out of the 7th, but finding out later that Nen was not 100% just made the decision all the worse.  And if you ever get into Dusty's doghouse, forget about ever getting out of it.

Mainly, his problem is that he's always the players' buddy, but never the parent he needs to be when it's time to win a series.  A series need to be managed differently from a season, when you are playing for all the marbles.  At some point, the players need to understand that he's making moves that will bruise egos, but at that time, he has to in order to win that game, that day.  He never realized that distinction or, worse, did know but just didn't know how to get his players to stay loyal to him and motivated to win while doing it.

Why I Love Bochy: From Player Manager to Playing to Win

I think Bochy has a spectrum of how he manages.  He imperceptibly moves along that spectrum from Player Manager to Playing to Win over the season.

Player Manager

Early on, it's showing confidence in guys and letting them show what they can do, managing as a player manager. In addition, he doesn't always put players into boxes or doghouse forever, as some do, he will sometimes give players chances to succeed or fail early on, even if that player had failed a lot before. He realizes that it's early in the season, no time for knee jerk reactions, and he doesn't focus on the negatives about what a player does, but appreciates the overall positives that he can provide. He's managing to get through the first half or so of the season, until the stretch run, while keeping in mind that he needs to step on the accelerator so that the team never gets too far back to win. 

Stretch Run Transition

Around mid-season, that's when he starts to get his ducks in a row, as he heads into the stretch run. Roughly half the season is gone now, should have a pretty good idea of where you stand in the battle for the division title. Also pretty good idea of who is producing. He starts lessening the flexibility and experimentation that characterizes the start of the season, and starts to stick with set roles and lineups, playing the guys who are producing. He will bench people (Rowand, Tejada) and starts to manage for the win more and more often. He will, as I would characterize it, go for the kill more often, in order to get the win.

Playing to Win:  Showing the Killer Instinct

By the playoffs, the transition has reached the other end of the spectrum. He don't care who you are, he will manage to win each game, then worry about the next game. He will bench people (Zito) or demote them (Lincecum), as necessary. He usually goes by merit who gets to be on a playoff roster, with Lincecum in 2014 as the exception, due to his stature and ego, most probably. He will bench people (Sandoval) while starting others (Renteria) who had done much up to then. He will take them out very early (Hudson and others) and use others in roles they hadn't been used in all season (Lincecum, Bumgarner). And it's all hands on deck to win the series (Phillies, Royals).

He seems to have learned that from his failure to win with the Padres in their only trip to the World Series with him.   I recall an interview with him where he expressed his disappointment with how that series went.  And all the Padres' fans' complaints about him favoring veterans and such seemed true until late in the 2010 season when he was making moves to win, damn the consequences, like starting Torres over Rowand.  And I was full blown in love when he left Zito off the playoff roster.  Again and again!

How he does it, I would like to think that he's very open with everyone about how they are producing and what they need to do if they don't like their situation.  They might not be happy about it, but if he's fair about it and consistent, then it's up to the player to prove him wrong by producing, and he gives them that chance early in the season.  How else does he get Sandoval to still play for him after benching him, or, even more, Zito to continue to pitch well enough for him after being left off the playoff roster throughout the playoffs?  There is no 2012 Championship, most probably, if Zito was not there winning key games for us.

People seem to think they could have gotten a better pitcher, but eating that much money, they probably could have only afforded a Wellemeyer type pitcher, who is willing to take the veteran's minimum to pitch for you.  There has also been some blowups (Rowand and Tejada) where there was no going back, and they were summarily let go, but mostly players just seem to love playing for him.  And that's because he plays to win while balancing that with being a player's manager, something that is truly a rare skill to have.

Your 2016 Giants: Cueto Fatigue

Continuing my series of posts on Cueto.  As I have been finding out, Cueto have splits, both by home vs. road, and first half vs. second half.  And those splits hold even when taking the two splits into account, both home and road gets worse in the second half.  The mysteries are two-fold:  why is he so much better in Cincinnati and why is he that much worse in the second half?

I don't think we can ever answer the former (my best guess is that there is something in the background of the stadium that works well with his deceptive pitching motion; there was an analysis long ago of why San Jose Municipal Stadium has a much higher strikeout rate and Giants hitters (including Bowker), noted that there were mountains in the background in CF that hid the ball in some visual haze plus also the sun would set in CF in the second half of the season and the hitter would be looking into the sun, so there was no hitter's eye, making it harder for the hitters to see the ball) but let's take a look at his monthly stats and see what's there.


ogc thoughts

I	Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
	April/March	36	941	856	78	183	46	2	22	3	3	58	210	3.62	.214	.273	.349	.622	299	11	13	9	5	5	7	.256	82
	May	40	1078	975	100	216	50	4	27	6	8	75	217	2.89	.222	.282	.364	.646	355	24	10	11	7	4	11	.256	89
	June	40	1027	932	96	219	40	4	25	6	9	69	194	2.81	.235	.298	.367	.665	342	20	15	9	2	0	10	.271	95
	July	39	1039	918	103	231	43	5	17	3	7	86	201	2.34	.252	.324	.365	.688	335	20	14	16	5	2	16	.304	103
	August	35	903	818	92	199	40	4	30	5	3	55	194	3.53	.243	.305	.412	.717	337	12	20	6	4	1	5	.283	109
	Sept/Oct	38	949	859	108	236	48	5	24	2	8	69	167	2.42	.275	.335	.426	.762	366	21	12	4	5	3	5	.315	123

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/14/2016.

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
	April/March	13	9	.591	2.84	36	36	0	2	1	0	234.1	183	78	74	22	58	5	210	13	5	4	941	1.028	8.1	3.62
	May	19	13	.594	2.93	40	40	0	4	2	0	267.1	216	100	87	27	75	4	217	10	3	2	1078	1.089	7.3	2.89
	June	21	10	.677	3.07	40	40	0	1	0	0	252.1	219	96	86	25	69	0	194	15	0	6	1027	1.141	6.9	2.81
	July	17	11	.607	3.38	39	39	0	3	2	0	242.1	231	103	91	17	86	2	201	14	2	2	1039	1.308	7.5	2.34
	August	16	13	.552	3.63	35	35	0	2	1	0	216.0	199	92	87	30	55	1	194	20	1	3	903	1.176	8.1	3.53
	Sept/Oct	12	14	.462	4.14	38	38	0	0	0	0	222.0	236	108	102	24	69	3	167	12	1	6	949	1.374	6.8	2.42

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/14/2016.

Sometimes a chart tells a thousand words.  As one can see in his OPS, it just get steadily worse and worse, until he's pretty bad in Sept/Oct.  And his ERA mirrors that mostly, though as one can see, his OPS almost linearly gets worse, but there is a big jump in ERA once he gets to July, and the bigger jump in Sept/Oct.  His BABIP mostly mirrors that, as well as his K/BB (or SO/W in the chart), except for his odd improvement in peripherals in August, but still worsening ERA and OPS.  So it appears to be fatigue.

The thing is, I'm not sure what else he can do to combat that.  It helps now that he's in a temperate ballpark, so we'll see if he can avoid the second half decline at home this season.  He is known as an innings eater, that is a big reason we signed him, but it might behoove the Giants not to ride him too hard, if the relievers are well rested and needing work.

The Reds appear to have kept an eye on him, his pitch count was actually lower by 1.6 pitches in H2 vs. H1.  He also pitched about a third of an inning less, probably as the result of giving up so many more hits and XBH's.   Still, his PQS fell from 3.91 to 3.31 and Game Score fell from 62 to 56, from H1 to H2.  He's giving up much more homers, though, only up slightly, and it was still very good, from 5.5% to 5.8%.